Falcons vs. Buccaneers Thursday Night Football betting: Player props and a single-game parlay
Island NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered. Statistics in this article are via TruMedia, PFF, FFToday or PlayerProfiler unless otherwise stated.
How to watch Falcons vs. Buccaneers
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV (national): Prime Video
- Falcons (in market): FOX 5
- Buccaneers (in market): FOX 13
- Streaming (local): Fubo (Stream Free Now)
- Watching in person? Get tickets on Stubhub
Emeka Egbuka over 45.5 receiving yards
Last weekend, Notre Dame fanatics went from confused to incensed to outright despondent. What the College Football Playoff committee did to the Golden Domers even has Touchdown Jesus wanting to throw hands.
Fantasy managers and player prop backers who’ve invested time, energy or moolah in Egbuka feel equally hoodwinked.
Once on a seemingly unstoppable path to hoist the Offensive Rookie of the Year hardware — odds on BetMGM have gone from -150 to +600 in five weeks — the former Ohio State standout has soured. Including last week’s ineffective two grabs for 15 yards against the Saints, he’s finished south of 50 receiving yards in four of his past five games.
However, with Mike Evans likely to return Thursday, the cooled rookie could run hot again.
The Falcons are thinking about Par 5s somewhere in the Lesser Antilles. Tapped out mentally, Atlanta is a painfully mediocre No. 21 in dropback EPA defense since Week 10. Over its past five games, Raheem Morris’ club has allowed the second-most wide receiver yards in the NFL. In total, this season, 13 wideouts have recorded at least 60 receiving yards against them.
Examining the matchup under a microscope, Egbuka will most often square dance with defensive back Mike Hughes. The coverman has yielded a mere 56.9 percent catch rate and 86.5 passer rating, but at No. 24 in most yards allowed, he’s no peak Darrelle Revis. Also, recall in Week 1 versus the A-T-L, he snagged four passes for 67 yards and two TDs.
Egbuka still exhibits an impressive advanced profile. He’s top-20 among all wide receivers in total air yards (1322), red zone target share (24.5 percent), yards after catch (295) and yards after catch per reception (5.4). With Evans back to help ease staunch coverage, the slumping rookie should break through the late-season wall.
If he doesn’t, the house is sure to build another wing.
Season props record: 7-6, +0.57 units
Single-game parlay
Bucky Iriving anytime TD
Buccaneers -2.5
+150 odds
Irving: Smashing and bashing to meaningful production in his triumphant return to the lineup last Sunday, a revitalized Irving will again work in concert alongside Rachaad White and Sean Tucker in what’s morphing into a ground-centric Josh Grizzard (offensive coordinator) attack. Similar to your consumption of Christmas cookies this time each year, Atlanta shows minimal resistance — especially in the trenches. This season, the Falcons are a beatable No. 24 in rush expected points added defense, allowing 4.44 yards per carry, 131.8 total yards per game and 12 total touchdowns to running backs. Candidly, Irving’s 2.07 yards after contact per attempt recorded last week against the Saints was downright wretched. He, however, touched the rock 17 times, crossing the chalk in his fourth-straight game. Given the ultra-friendly matchup and his vigorous workload, Irving has favorable odds of spiking home a winner. Our buddies at BetAlytics give him a 49.9 percent chance of scoring. Buck up!
Buccaneers: Correlate. Synergize. And bring it all together. If Irving splashes pay dirt, Tampa is likely to register a much-needed win. The Bucs have a 70 percent chance of making the postseason. However, with a pair of matchups remaining versus Carolina, its margin for error against Atlanta and Week 17 at Miami is minimal. To avoid a profuse sweat, the Bucs must repeatedly fire the cannons Thursday night at Raymond James. Surprisingly, Tampa last defeated its division rival at home in 2022. Containing Bijan Robinson will be a tall task — particularly for a defense No. 20 in rush EPA since Week 9 — but with a thoroughly washed Kirk Cousins under center, Todd Bowles’ bunch should successfully stack the box and mitigate significant ground gains. Throw in Atlanta’s shortcomings on defense, and the Bucs swashbuckle through their familiar foe by at least a field goal. Yarr!
Season parlay record: 4-9, -3.65 units
